Bitcoin (BTC) has suffered a smaller peak-to-trough loss in this cycle than in the prior three, Hashdex Chief Investment Officer Samir Kerbage said, though he said another decline could follow June's low.
Kerbage put the current cycle's steepest drop at about 53%. In his comparison, Bitcoin fell 84%, 83% and 77% in the prior three major cycles. He said June may have been the bottom, but the price could fall again before recovering, leaving the cycle low uncertain.
The gains separating successive cycle peaks have also narrowed, according to Kerbage: 1,598%, 250% and 85% in sequence. His estimates put average annualized volatility at about 80% across the first two cycles, 53% in the third and roughly 44% in the current cycle. He interpreted the decline as a sign Bitcoin's market is becoming more established. His comparison with gold showed a smaller volatility gap over time, moving from nearly 10-to-1 in 2017 to about 2-to-1 in 2025 and 1.5-to-1 in 2026.
Kerbage pointed to stablecoins and tokenization as signs of crypto activity extending beyond Bitcoin. Since July 2024, the number of Brazilian wallets holding at least $10,000 in stablecoins has increased 347%, he said. He included tokenization among the areas that could keep growing while Bitcoin is in a downturn.
The question of whether the low is in also appears in EconoTimes' earlier coverage of two Bitcoin cycle gauges. In a Nov. 5 post on CryptoQuant, CryptoZeno put the 30-day average of the Bitcoin Cycle Extremes Index at 15.8%, in the “Watch / Mild Pressure” zone, while the Cycle Extreme Oscillator's 30-day average remained below 1.0. CryptoZeno said the readings did not confirm that the correction had ended.
