The Bank of England's Inflation Report was marginally doveish. Growth forecasts were revised lower significantly acrossthe forecast period (2.5% from 2.9% in 2015, 2.6% from 2.9% in 2016) but near-term inflation outlook revisedhigher to 0.6% for 2015 as a result of rise in oil prices.
Medium-term inflation outlook is broadly unchanged. The short-sterling curve bull-flattened after the release of the report with back-end 2016 contracts ~4bps lower.
BoE Governor Carney said GBP strength is relevant for the projected path of UK interest rates (causing a 20 pip drop in GBP), that wage developments relative to productivity and GBP strength are the biggest factors for the inflation outlook and that we can expect further pass-through of GBP strength into the UK economy after its recent rally.
Commentary
BoE’s Inflation Report marginally doveish
The Bank of England's Inflation Report was marginally doveish. Growth forecasts were revised lower significantly acrossthe forecast period (2.5% from 2.9% in 2015, 2.6% from 2.9% in 2016) but near-term inflation outlook …
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