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Despite a recent rally in Chinese equities, many investors remain uncertain about its sustainability. Bank of America (BofA) strategists suggest the potential for a re-rating of Chinese stocks. However, U.S. mutual funds appear underprepared for a sustained rally. Of the 50 S&P 500 stocks most sensitive to the MSCI China index, only 13 are overweight in aggregate fund holdings, indicating investors are more prepared for a brief uptick or a "head-fake" than a prolonged surge in China-exposed equities.
Fed Rate Cuts and a Shift Toward Equity Income
With expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by around 2 percentage points, BofA predicts retirees might shift their cash from money market funds into higher dividend-yielding equities. However, large operators (LOs) have increasingly favored long-term growth (LTG) stocks over those with high dividend yields. This shift is evident in the record-low aggregate dividend yield of fund holdings compared to the S&P 500. Additionally, retail investors have been leaning towards tech and growth stocks, with four of the top five most widely held stocks in Merrill accounts being tech-related.
Defensive Stance Despite Economic Optimism
While BofA economists have raised their GDP and earnings forecasts through 2025, both long-only (LO) and hedge funds (HF) remain defensively positioned. Despite the Fed starting an easing cycle, these funds continue to hedge against potential economic downturns. BofA contends that this "double-stimulative" environment—where both profits and rate cuts are at play—could favor cyclical stocks over defensive ones, potentially positioning value stocks to lead as profits improve.
Tax Loss Harvesting: Potential Volatility in October
BofA anticipates that October could bring about tax loss harvesting, a strategy employed since the Tax Reform Act of 1986. Historically, stocks that fall 10% or more by the end of September tend to underperform the S&P 500 in October by 85 basis points. According to BofA, these trends may create headwinds for certain stocks before a potential rebound in November.
