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Brent crude futures for November delivery climbed $1.12, or 1.56%, to $93.10 per barrel by 0611 GMT. The contract expires Monday, with December futures advancing $1.04, or 1.45%, to $92.58. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 93 cents, or 1.36%, to $89.11 per barrel.
Despite Monday’s gains, Brent and WTI fell by around 3% and 5%, respectively, last week on concerns over Chinese demand, even with fiscal stimulus measures in the world's second-largest economy and top oil importer.
Escalating Middle East Conflict Fuels Oil Prices
Monday’s price surge was driven by fears that a broader Middle East conflict could involve Iran, a major oil producer and OPEC member. Israel has stepped up attacks on Iranian-backed Hezbollah and Houthi militants, stoking concerns of potential supply disruptions. Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, noted that investors are closely monitoring the risk of a region-wide conflict affecting key oil-producing areas.
Hamas reported that an Israeli strike killed its leader in Lebanon, while another Palestinian militant group announced the deaths of three leaders in a Beirut strike. Israel launched airstrikes against Houthi militia targets in Yemen and Hezbollah positions in Lebanon on Sunday.
OPEC+ Cuts and China's Demand in Focus
According to Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, oil prices are likely to be influenced by supply-demand dynamics, particularly as OPEC+'s voluntary supply cuts are set to end on December 1. WTI may test its 2021 lows in the $61-$62 range. Despite China’s recent economic stimulus, uncertainties persist regarding fuel demand due to ongoing electrification and decarbonization efforts in the transportation sector.
China’s manufacturing sector contracted for a fifth straight month in September, with the services sector also slowing sharply. Markets are anticipating Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech later Monday, which could provide insight into the central bank's approach to monetary easing. "The response of demand to easing rates and the revival of Chinese demand following recent stimulus will shape future oil market dynamics," Sachdeva added.
