Economic pessimism has set in – but there are reasons for Australians to be hopeful 
Trump Urges Gasoline Retailers to Cut Prices to $2.50 Per Gallon, Warns of Legal Action 
Argentina Economy Shrinks 1.5% in April, Recovery Under Milei Loses Momentum 
Gold Prices Drop as Fed Rate Outlook and Iran Tensions Weigh on Market 
China Manufacturing PMI Edges Higher in June as Exports and AI Investment Boost Growth 
Gold Price Ends Lower for Fourth Week Despite Rebound as Fed Rate Hike Bets Strengthen 
China Factory PMI Seen Returning to Growth in June as AI Export Demand Supports Economy 
US Stock Futures Rise as US-Iran Ceasefire Hopes Boost Market Sentiment 
Oil Prices Slip as U.S.-Iran Peace Talks and Strait of Hormuz Risks Keep Markets on Edge 
US Dollar Slips After PCE Inflation Data as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Stay Elevated 
Wall Street Ends Lower as AI Stocks Drag Markets, Fed Rate Outlook Shifts 
Japan Targets 1%+ Real Economic Growth With ¥370 Trillion Investment Plan 
Yen Falls to 40-Year Low as Markets Watch Japan Intervention and U.S. Jobs Report 
World Bank Approves $1.1 Billion Emergency Funding for Bangladesh Amid Food and Energy Price Pressures 
China Sets 1.25% Overnight Reverse Repo Rate Below Market Expectations 
Oil Prices Rise as US-Iran Tensions Threaten Strait of Hormuz Oil Shipments 
China Expands Export Controls, Adds 20 Japanese Companies to Restricted List 
Oil prices remained relatively steady on Monday but ended the third quarter with a 17% decline as concerns over waning global demand overshadowed fears of a supply disruption from Middle East tensions.
Brent crude futures for November delivery, which expired on Monday, fell 21 cents, settling at $92.20 per barrel. Meanwhile, the more actively traded December contract rose by 27 cents to close at $92.25. Brent prices saw a 9% drop in September — the largest monthly decrease since November 2022. For the third quarter, Brent slumped by 17%, its biggest quarterly loss in a year.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures remained relatively unchanged, slipping by one cent to settle at $68.17. The U.S. benchmark saw a 7% decrease in September, marking the largest monthly decline since October 2022. For the quarter, WTI fell by 16%, the largest drop since Q3 of last year.
Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East Add to Market Volatility
On Monday, oil prices found some support from speculation that Iran, a key OPEC producer, might become involved in the escalating Middle East conflict. Israel has intensified military operations against Hezbollah and Hamas leaders in Lebanon and has targeted Houthi positions in Yemen — all three groups are backed by Iran.
Economist Tim Snyder of Matador Economics noted that the market is assessing whether the conflict could expand, potentially affecting crude supply in the region.
China’s Economic Stimulus and Saudi Production Plans Weigh on Prices
China's recent fiscal stimulus measures to support the world's second-largest economy have had limited impact on oil prices, as traders remain skeptical about their potential to boost China's sluggish demand this year.
Moreover, prices were pressured by reports suggesting that Saudi Arabia, OPEC's de facto leader, is considering increasing oil production, effectively moving away from its unofficial target of $100 per barrel. Jim Ritterbusch, of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates, indicated that Saudi Arabia’s plan to raise output in December could exert bearish pressure on the market in the coming weeks.
China’s Shrinking Manufacturing and Libyan Oil Production Recovery
Monday’s economic data revealed that China’s manufacturing sector contracted for the fifth month in a row, and the services sector sharply slowed in September, contributing to global demand concerns.
Additionally, the potential recovery in Libya's oil production weighed on the market. Libya's eastern-based parliament agreed to approve the nomination of a new central bank governor, a move that may help resolve political issues that have previously constrained the country's oil output.
