Brazil exports gain could lead to improvement in investment outlook

While Brazil remains a closed economy in some senses - not least because of the low exports to GDP ratio - the correlation between exports and the investment cycle has improved quite substantially over the past decade. 

Therefore, there is an upside chance that the improvement in exports could trigger a strong enough investment cycle to stimulate a meaningful recovery. 

"This clearly represents an upside risk to our recent downgrade of Brazil's growth outlook across the forecast horizon", says Societe Generale.