BRL was Monday's top performer, though the bounce is modest in the context of the last two weeks' drubbing (USD/BRL: 3.82).
In G10, AUD built on gains reaching 0.7150 - technical analysts argues a close above 0.7190 is required to trigger a bullish trend reversal and commence a retracement phase.
That would expose 0.7440/0.7561 on the top side, but we favour fading such rallies as we look for AUD to trade to 0.6800. NOK was hurt on sharper losses in Brent compared to other crude benchmarks (Brent -3.5%, WTI -1%).
There is no clear consensus on the Fed this week at least in FX. DXY has been drifting lower over the past week and analysts show no strong USD bias. RBC's official call is still a hike this week, though our US economists worry the odds of it happening have fallen.
"Our own view is October is underrated and no hike with a signal that a hike is coming in Q4 should have a similar effect. Our bias is USD positive (we still have a short EUR/USD put spread expiring the day after the October FOMC)," notes RBS Research.


FxWirePro: Daily Commodity Tracker - 21st March, 2022
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