Brazilian real likely to suffer on dovish central bank comments in short-term, says Commerzbank

The Brazilian real is expected to be pressurized on further dovish comments from the central bank policymakers, at least in the short-term, according to a recent research report from Commerzbank.

Following the surprisingly dovish statement last week, the focus today rests on the publication of the meeting minutes as well as the Q1 inflation report on Thursday. In its statement, the central bank had already signaled that at its next meeting in May it would probably cut its key rate by 25 basis points and that it would then take a break in the rate cut cycle.

Of course, the future data publications and the development of the financial markets will affect the central bank’s actual (future) decisions. As was the case last week when it once again cut its key rate even though it had signaled an end of its rate cut cycle in February.

Against this background, market participants are likely to look for further indications in the meeting minutes and inflation report on how dovish the central bank is at present and what its forecasts for inflation and the economy are, the report added.

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