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Brent crude oil also known as UK oil fell to near parity on mid-January 2015 with its American counterpart West Texas Intermediate (WTI), since then the spread has increased giving it the upper hand over WTI.
Our take on this is-
- Both the crude is light & sweet(less sulfur contains) so we don't expect such premium to exist in price compared to heavy West Canada Select.
- We view the spread is more of a market concern over the growing stockpiling in the US. US have been producing oil at an unprecedented 9 million barrels a day even after the reduction in prices.
- Recent cut down on rigs and future investment by companies so far has not impacted in the price or production much.
- US crude is not allowed to be exported as per the current law, which companies like EXXON MOBIL has been trying to change for years now in the wake of shale oil. So far the government only sanctioned few export contracts compared to the production.
- We believe the reduction in the price of crude and widening of the spread will provide a new upper hand to the companies in the debate.
So far we remain bearish on crude oil, as the supply glut still persists. We would be following the political change of minds in the US over the mentioned law if any. Such outcome could be a boost for the WTI against Brent. Currently the spread is trading just below $9.
