Societe Generale expects the option to be knocked-in in the very short term. A disappointment at the next RBA meeting (no cut) would lift the AUD. This would activate the option and make it ready for a May cut.
The negative skew implies a lower probability for a rise than a fall, so that a topside knock-in barrier finances a portion of the smile premium paid via the low strike.
Commentary
Buy 3M AUD/USD put strike 0.76, knock-in 0.80: Societe Generale
Societe Generale expects the option to be knocked-in in the very short term. A disappointment at the next RBA meeting (no cut) would lift the AUD. This would activate the option and make it ready for a May cut. The negat…
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