CLARITY Act Odds Slide Ahead of Hearing

The odds of the CLARITY Act being passed have been decreasing as the Senate agenda tightens and members of Congress still have not agreed on a single bill text. Recent reports indicate one research firm lowered its 2026 passage forecast to 60% on June 12, then to 50% on June 29, while a July 16 report said prediction-market odds had further fallen to roughly 31% after the new text was once again delayed.

The useful reading is that the measure is approaching a timing issue rather than a complete support collapse. Though the impending congressional hearing may help to maintain visibility, the present market signal points to traders treating passage as progressively uncertain headed into the August recess—a modest negative for sentiment around BTC, ETH, and broader U.S. digital-asset regulation and a headwind for crypto policy optimism.