Canada real GDP is expected to climb a modest 0.1% in April, ending a three-month string of declines. A big increase in wholesale activity and continued strength in the housing market look to be key contributors to growth.
Manufacturing and retail weakened modestly in the month, while mining, oil & gas likely still has some downside as the industry continues to adjust to the lower price environment. The risks likely remain on the downside, with potentially greater-than-expected weakness in oil and construction (which has fallen for five straight months).
"Our call would put Q2 GDP on track for around 0.5% growth, with the poor hand-off from Q1 weighing heavily. However, the economic backdrop is expected to improve meaningfully over the coming months." said BMO Capital Markets
