Jerome Powell Attends Supreme Court Hearing on Trump Effort to Fire Fed Governor, Calling It Historic 
Markets React as Tensions Rise Between White House and Federal Reserve Over Interest Rate Pressure 
Bank of Japan Signals Cautious Path Toward Further Rate Hikes Amid Yen Weakness 
FxWirePro: Daily Commodity Tracker - 21st March, 2022 
Bank of England Expected to Hold Interest Rates at 3.75% as Inflation Remains Elevated 
New York Fed President John Williams Signals Rate Hold as Economy Seen Strong in 2026 
We have been arguing that normalization of monetary policies will be driving markets for years to come. We expect the Fed to lead the way. Other G10 central banks are likely to continue moving to the opposite direction for a while, and then start tightening after the Fed's tightening cycle has advanced.
Even if the Fed delays hiking rates, it will be the first central bank to do so, in our view. We believe that the ECB, at the other extreme, will have to ease policies further.
We expect the ECB to miss its inflation target in the months ahead and start talking about QE2, in the form of extending QE after September next year. The timing of the Fed rate hike and the ECB seriously considering QE2 will determine the EUR/USD path, but the final outcome is a weaker EUR/USD, in our view.
We like selling the EUR/USD rallies when we get them, as the path will continue being volatile. We also note that the Eurozone's unemployment rate is the highest in G10 compared with pre-crisis levels, and that the Eurozone also has the largest output gap. This suggests that EUR/USD could weaken more and remain weak in the medium term.
