Chances to get a disbursement in time for Greece to repay the IMF on June 30 are now slim

The timeline is getting very, very tight, see Compressed timeline for Greece. The Eurogroup's meeting this Thursday could well be the last chance to get any disbursement ready in time for the bundled payment to the IMF on 30 June.

If no deal is found we think that Europeans would seek to create a "grey territory" trying to avoid a Grexit after a default, says BofA Merrill Lynch. This would be a very fragile equilibrium but avoiding irreversibility would be at the center of the Europeans' priorities. 

BofA Merrill Lynch said "In our view, the ECB would have to play a crucial role to deal with contagion, but if the Greek crisis were to continue for much longer, a deeper involvement from member states - and further concessions on sovereignty to strengthen the Euro area as an institutional construct - would also be needed."