Inflation moderation stops for now as Chilean peso depreciation hits prices a fresh round of substantial peso depreciation has halted the brief phase of inflation moderation.
Societe Generale expects inflation to rise two ticks to 4.60% yoy (0.40% mom) in July. Moreover the prospect of further pressure on the currency means inflation could stay in the 4.0-5.0% range for the remainder of the year, whereas their current forecast sees it sliding throughout the year. The bank estimates headline inflation at 3.8% and core inflation at 4.7% in this year.
The peso depreciation alone might not be enough to exert sufficient pressure on inflation and the rates outlook over the medium term (although it does weaken the argument in favour of additional rate cuts to support growth).
According to SocGen, "The downside risks to our forecasts relate to further weakness in the economy leading to the deterioration in the labour market and wage growth."


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