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China Manufacturing PMI Beats Forecasts as Export and Domestic Demand Stay Strong

China Manufacturing PMI Beats Forecasts as Export and Domestic Demand Stay Strong. Source: RG72, CC BY-SA 4., via Wikimedia Commons

China’s manufacturing sector continued to expand in May 2026, with private survey data indicating stronger-than-expected growth driven by resilient domestic consumption and steady export demand. The latest RatingDog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed to 51.8 in May, surpassing market forecasts of 51.4 and signaling ongoing expansion in the world’s second-largest economy.

Although the reading eased slightly from April’s 52.2, it remained above the critical 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction. The result also marked the sixth consecutive month of expansion in China’s manufacturing industry, highlighting the sector’s continued recovery despite global economic uncertainties.

According to the survey, new orders increased during May, supported by healthy demand from both domestic and overseas markets. While export growth softened marginally compared with the previous month, international demand remained strong enough to contribute positively to overall factory activity.

Manufacturers also continued to face elevated production costs. Input prices stayed relatively high, largely due to ongoing energy-related pressures linked to conflict in the Middle East. Rising costs for raw materials and energy remained a challenge for businesses, even as demand conditions improved.

The private-sector PMI data contrasted with China’s official manufacturing PMI report released a day earlier. Government figures showed factory activity only narrowly remaining in expansion territory during May, suggesting a more modest pace of growth.

Differences between the two surveys stem largely from the companies included in each report. The official PMI primarily focuses on larger state-owned manufacturers, particularly in northern China, while the RatingDog survey tracks smaller and privately owned firms, many of which are located in the country’s southern manufacturing hubs.

Economists and investors typically analyze both PMI reports together to gain a broader view of China’s economic performance. The stronger-than-expected RatingDog reading suggests that private manufacturers continue to benefit from solid demand, offering a positive signal for the outlook of China’s manufacturing sector and overall economic growth in 2026.

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