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US Dollar Falls as Weak July Jobs Report Dents Fed Rate Hike Bets

US Dollar Falls as Weak July Jobs Report Dents Fed Rate Hike Bets. Source: Photo by Pixabay

The U.S. dollar weakened on Friday and headed toward its first two-week losing streak since late May after a disappointing July jobs report reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve interest rate hike.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, fell 0.4% to 99.54 and was also down about 0.4% for the week. The euro gained 0.4% to $1.1568, while the British pound rose 0.3% to $1.3502. The Japanese yen strengthened as USD/JPY declined 0.6% to 157.48.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, sharply missing forecasts for an 85,000 increase and marking the first monthly employment decline since February. May and June payroll figures were also revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs. However, the unemployment rate improved slightly to 4.1% from 4.2%.

Much of the headline payroll decline came from local government education, which shed nearly 50,000 jobs. Private payrolls still increased by around 30,000. Initial jobless claims also remained below 200,000 for a third consecutive week, suggesting the broader U.S. labor market has yet to experience severe stress.

The mixed employment picture complicates the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook. Persistent inflation, partly fueled by volatile oil prices and Middle East tensions, continues to support arguments for tighter monetary policy. However, weaker job creation could encourage policymakers to delay additional rate hikes, particularly at the Fed's September meeting.

The Japanese yen, meanwhile, retained much of its strength following a landmark joint U.S.-Japan currency intervention. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed Washington participated in yen purchases, marking the first coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention since 2011 and the first U.S. action specifically aimed at strengthening the yen since 1998. USD/JPY had previously reached around 164 before retreating toward the 157 level.

Elsewhere, the South Korean won recorded a sixth straight weekly decline, its longest losing streak since January 2023. The currency has faced pressure from a global technology sell-off, weakness in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shares, leveraged ETF unwinding, and continued foreign capital outflows.

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