China to see both great risk and great reform in 2015
China's new leaders are convening for their annual NPC plenary meeting to define the country's economic orientation for 2015. Policymakers lowered the growth target to "about 7%" for 2015 from 7.5% previously. But there …
China's new leaders are convening for their annual NPC plenary meeting to define the country's economic orientation for 2015.
Policymakers lowered the growth target to "about 7%" for 2015 from 7.5% previously. But there is a good chance that growth will miss the target for the second year in a row (SGf: 6.8% yoy).
Societe Generale notes in a report on Monday:
The biggest risk in 2015 lies in the fiscal reform. Our economists caution that fiscal and monetary easing is unlikely to offset the impact of local government debt consolidation.
Major reforms in 2015 are likely to include a restructuring plan for state-owned enterprises, implementation of a registrationbased IPO system and a deposit insurance scheme, as well as further opening-up of domestic capital markets.
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