China’s copper demand growth decelerates in May

China's copper imports fall modestly in May from April levels. Imports of anode, cathode, alloys and semis copper products totalled 360kt in May, down 6% y/y and 16% m/m versus April (428kt). Current data set points to a deceleration in China's copper demand growth in May. 

On current trends, this points to net cathode imports of close to 260kt for the month, which implies the ex-China market had to absorb close to 50kt of extra copper cathode in May versus April. Given that LME stocks fell in May, albeit by a modest 20kt compared to unchanged the previous month, this suggests a sequential improvement in ex-China demand conditions. 

"We expect domestic refined copper output to be close to 680kt for the month (+5% y/y). In terms of inventory levels in May, there was a near 30kt decline in SHFE stocks balanced by a 20kt build in bonded stocks (to close to 680kt). Overall, at this juncture we estimate stock-adjusted refined copper apparent demand at close to 940kt in May, representing 2-3% y/y growth. This is modestly lower than the 5% y/y average demand growth in January to April and suggests the Q2 rebound in demand has lost some momentum." - notes Standard Chartered