China's exports unexpectedly fell 6.4% y/y in April, while imports declined 16.2% y/y, showing few signs of recovery in either external or domestic demand. In the first four months of 2015, while exports to the US and ASEAN grew robustly at 9% and 13%y/y, respectively, exports to the EU and Japan fell 1% and 12% y/y.
According to Standard Chartered, a slow recovery is expected in external demand in the months ahead, while domestic demand may not stabilise until H2. This year's annual trade surplus may exceed last year's, making it difficult to use Chinese yuan (CNY) depreciation as a policy tool.
