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Chinese bonds sag on tracking firm crude oil

The Chinese government bonds slumped on Thursday as investors cooled on safe-haven assets amid gains in riskier assets including stocks and oil. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bonds which moves inversely to its price moved higher 0.65 pct to 2.964 pct and the yield on the 2-year bonds ticked up 0.70 pct to 2.460 pct by 0550 GMT.

Yesterday, the People's Bank of China chief economist Ma said that the authorities should focus on preventing macro risks besides introducing measures to help stabilise growth for future monetary policy operations; attention should be given to companies' rising leverage ratio. Said the authorities should also consider the impact of credit growth on consumer prices and housing prices, relatively fast first quarter credit growth was partly driven by cyclical and seasonal factors. He added that drivers included government policies for stabilizing growth, credit demand from new infrastructure projects and property market rebound. M2 growth for Q116 was within a reasonable range and private investment growth remained at relatively low levels, he further added.

On Friday, China’s March Industrial production figures jumped to 6.8 pct y/y, higher than the market consensus of 5.9 pct y/y, as compared to 5.4 pct in the February. The March retail sales also climbed 10.5 pct y/y, more than the market expectation of 10.4 pct y/y, from 10.2 pct in February, manifested that Chinese economy is removing modestly.

"Monetary policy has already done its job after last year’s intensive easing and we expects rates on hold all year versus earlier predicting a second-quarter cut," said Harrison Hu, chief Greater China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc in Singapore to Bloomberg.

"The central bank needs to save the bullets for more difficult times ahead. Fiscal policy should take over and play a larger role this year in buttressing the real economy," he added.

The Chinese government bonds have been closely following developments in oil markets because of their impact on inflation expectations and stock market sentiments. Today, Crude oil prices jumped as Energy Information Administration's (EIA) showed that crude stock rose lower than the market expectation last week. The crude inventories rose 2.1 million barrels, from prior build of +6.6 million barrels for the week ending 15 April. This came alongside a decreases seen in gasoline inventories of -0.1million barrel, from prior -4.2 million barrel and distillate inventories of -3.6 million barrel, as compared to a build of +0.5 million barrel seen prior. Moreover, Market speculation that Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia will meet in Moscow next month to again strike a deal on oil output freeze, boosted crude oil investors confidence. But, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak denied about any such meeting happening in Russia in May.

On Sunday, the negotiations between Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia failed to reach an agreement in the Doha round of talks to strike a deal on oil output freeze. The International benchmark for crude oil prices, Brent futures rose 0.13 pct to $45.85, while West Texas Intermediate crude oil jumped 0.18 pct to $44.26 by 0525 GMT.

Meanwhile, Shanghai Composite (SSEC) rose 0.11 pct to 2975.83 and Shenzhen Composite (SZSE) Index bounced 0.13 pct at 10,177.35 by 0550 GMT, after an overnight rise in oil prices.

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