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The day of reckoning is approaching for the two hot potatoes in the EM universe. Turkish current account data is due for publication on Thursday in South Africa next week. And it does not bode well as the current account deficit in both countries is likely to have deteriorated.
Due to the current scepticism on the part of investors towards EM these two countries are affected by a weak currency due to the high current account deficit (just under 16% (TRY) and 12.5% (ZAR) against USD since mid-July - most recently this has been accelerating). It is this acceleration that concerns us particularly.
The more rapidly the currencies devalue the more likely that capital inflow will suddenly stop which would invariably lead to recession. Industrial production data as well as Q2 GDP from Turkey as well as industrial production from South Africa will provide a first insight during the course of the week.
"We remain sceptical towards both currencies and will continue to buy USD-TRY and USD-ZAR on weakness", says Commerzbank.
