Commerzbank expects Spain’s economy to grow 1.6% in 2027, a steeper slowdown than the Bank of Spain projects, even as both institutions forecast 2.6% growth this year.
Commerzbank’s forecast table, completed Sept. 18, puts euro-area growth at 1.0% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027. On those estimates, Spain would still grow faster than the currency bloc next year, though its lead would narrow from 1.6 percentage points this year to 0.5 point.
The Bank of Spain’s Oct. 9 projections put 2027 growth at 2.2%, matching the Spanish government’s estimate in its framework for the 2027 budget. BBVA Research expects 2.1% growth next year, while the European Commission’s May forecast puts it at 1.9%. Commerzbank’s estimate is the lowest of those projections.
The two main forecasts also imply different degrees of slowing. Growth of 1.6% would be a full percentage point below their shared 2026 estimate; the Bank of Spain’s 2.2% projection implies a decline of 0.4 point.
Spain’s Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE) reported that gross domestic product rose 0.7% in the second quarter from the preceding quarter and 2.6% from a year earlier. Domestic demand added 3.5 percentage points to annual growth, while external demand subtracted 0.9 point. The figures show the importance of spending within Spain to the economy’s recent expansion.
The Bank of Spain cites household consumption, job creation and population growth as supports for this year’s expansion. It expects domestic demand to moderate in 2027, slowing economic activity and employment growth.
BBVA Research says higher interest rates and energy costs could erode household purchasing power and corporate margins, weighing on investment. Those pressures are part of its outlook for slower growth, rather than effects already established by the second-quarter GDP figures.
The next measure of Spain’s economic momentum is due Friday, Oct. 30, when INE is scheduled to release preliminary third-quarter GDP figures.
