Crude Oil Plummets to $58.80 as IEA Forecasts Record 4M BPD Surplus by 2026

Crude oil prices trade weak on tariff worries and easing demand. It hit a low of  $57.68 and is currently trading around $58.80.

Unleashing a very pessimistic oil market projection, the International Energy Agency projects a record worldwide crude surplus of almost 4 million barrels per day. Against rising inventories that increased 102 million barrels in September alone, bpd in 2026 up 18% from earlier projections and equaling 4% of worldwide demand Since the COVID-19 outbreak, the biggest development. With overall growth estimated at 3.0 million barrels per day in 2025 (including 1.4 million barrels per day from OPEC+ unwinding cuts) and 2.4 million barrels per day Driven by non-OPEC+ powerhouses such the US, Brazil, and Canada adding 1.6 million bpd next year in 2026, demand growth has been cut to Far below 710,000 bpd in 2025 and 700,000 bpd in 2026, hampered by macroeconomic obstacles and fast transport electrification eroding gasoline and diesel consumption. OPEC's more upbeat 1.3 million bpd forecast. This imbalance has driven prices down to five-month lows for Brent crude, under $62 per barrel, confirming expectations of extended oversupply through 2026.

Price Resistance and Support Levels

The near-term resistance is around $60; any breach above this level could push prices higher to $60.76/$61.80/$62.48/$63/$63.84/$64.20/$65.On the downside, immediate support is at $57.50 violation below targets  $55/$53.

 It is good to  sell on rallies around $60 with a stop-loss around $61.80 and a target price of $55.