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Bitcoin Price Skyrockets On Robust Uptrend, Spot On Hedging Dynamics

The Year-2020 has so far been conducive for Bitcoin (BTC) prices. The major cryptocurrencies have shown considerable surge in prices in January and with this bullish frame of mind, the robust uptrend has continued even in this month.

Well, BTC has shown a mammoth more than 30% price gains in January month contemplating numerous constructive fundamental driving forces. Couple of analysts and Crypto enthusiasts reckon these gains will continue too in 2020. The pioneer crypto pair has been the largest by its market capitalisation is currently oscillating between $9k - $9.6k range so far.

But yesterday, bulls have managed to breakout this range with their 5% rallies and made fresh 3 and a half months highs at $9,769.70 levels. It has temporarily halted at that juncture but for now, we could foresee more upside price risks.

Technically, BTCUSD at Coinbase, has broken out the range resistance upon bullish engulfing patterns. Despite some minor hiccups signalled by hanging man & shooting star patterns, the minor uptrend seems to be quite healthy for now upon saucer formation (refer daily chart). Bulls are now shrugging-off these bearish patterns and taking-off well above 7, 21 & 100-DMAs with bullish crossovers.

Both the leading and lagging oscillators are in line with the uptrend, though momentum oscillators (RSI & stochastic curves) signal the mild overbought indications.

On a broader perspective, the pair has bounced from $3,128 levels to $13,880 levels in the recent past, but paired gains in the H2'2019.

Amid the robust uptrend alongside of the maturing crypto-derivatives markets with new instruments, the decentralized finance is also flourishing. The crypto derivatives function almost similarly to that of conventional derivatives instruments.

On flip side, we’ve got decentralized derivatives that are quite unique from usual, wherein it eliminates the presence of broker. Instead, the terms of the contracts would be programmed into smart contracts and settles automatically upon the terms of the contract are fulfilled.

Many analysts anticipate a growth rate of around 1.1% in the euro area for 2020, which is slightly lower than in 2019. While the growth signals indicate that US exceptionalism has faded further.

The growth impact of the oil price increase thus far has not yet impacted our growth outlook. Some economists have estimated that a sustained $10/bl rise in oil prices for a year due to a supply-led shock would reduce global growth by 0.15%.

Both within the euro area and globally, the biggest threat is a downturn in trade resulting from a range of uncertainties, primarily affecting manufacturing and hampering investment. This range of uncertainties, in addition to geopolitical risks and issues relating to climate change, includes ongoing trade tensions and Brexit. Amid such a global backdrop, we reckon bitcoin can act as a global hedge.

As we had foreseen upside risks in the underlying security price upfront about a fortnight ago and advocatedlong hedges & trading strategies accordingly using CME BTC Futures.

As the bearish pattern candles pop-up in the minor uptrend coupled with the overbought pressures signalled by the momentum oscillators, we perceive this as a better entry levels provided by the bears for fresh traders at this juncture.

We wish to uphold the above strategy by rolling over CME BTC Futures contracts of March deliveries. Please be noted that on a fresh long build-up (rising price) coupled with the rising open interest and rising volumes is conducive factor for the contract holders.

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