Crypto's CLARITY Crisis: Odds of Landmark Legislation Fade as Senate Clock Runs Down

As political will in Washington has slowed, Galaxy Digital has lowered the forecast for the CLARITY Act from 75% to barely 60% in 2026. Delivered on June 5 by Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn, the amended projection shows a fast narrowing window for the historic digital asset law that has already missed several self-imposed deadlines. While Thorn thinks the measure is still more probable than not to pass, Polymarket betting markets are even more pessimistic—pricing in just a 54% probability of adoption as business insiders face the reality that time might be running out for thorough crypto legislation this year.

Mostly because the Senate schedule has become a terrible bottleneck, the odds were lowered. Floor time for the CLARITY Act has gone as legislators balance opposing priorities and an unclear legislative schedule made worse by a rejected FISA reinstatement vote. The bill, which passed the Senate Banking Committee by a 15–9 vote, still has to pass a complete Senate vote and probably go back to the House before the August recess—an increasingly impossible task with only 18 official working weeks left. Further complicating issues, the bill has divisive CFT-related clauses that increase procedural complexity; Senator Moreno's dire warning that "if we don't pass by May, digital asset legislation won't pass for the next future" now hangs heavily over the process.

Analysts caution that if the measure doesn't pass before legislators leave for summer break, it may be postponed for years—perhaps even until 2030 or later. Senator Lummis's May deadline has passed unheeded, and with the November midterms coming, political focus will soon turn totally to campaigning. Alex Thorn said his April projection that odds would plummet dramatically if markup went beyond mid-May has mostly materialized, sending crypto fans in a desperate dash against the legislative calendar. The fundamental reality is depressing: Though there is bipartisan support, the CLARITY Act runs the danger of becoming yet another victim of Congressional gridlock without the hours on the Senate floor.