Currency snapshot (major pairs)

Dollar index trading at 98.53 (+0.16%)

Strength meter (today so far) – Euro -0.28%, Franc -0.26%, Yen -0.31%, GBP -0.04%

Strength meter (since last week) – Euro -0.28%, Franc -0.26%, Yen -0.31%, GBP -0.04%

EUR/USD –

Trading at 1.095

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Sell, Short term – Sell

Support                      

• Long term – 1.06, Medium term – 1.08, Short term – 1.08

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.16, Medium term – 1.143, Short term – 1.132

Economic release today –

• Flash reading rose by 1.6 percent y/y in third quarter.

Commentary –

• The euro is down again today to begin the week. Active call – Sell EUR/USD at 1.116 with stop loss at 1.15 and target at 1.01. stop loss revised to 1.13

GBP/USD –

Trading at 1.216

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Sell, Short term – Sell

Support –

• Long term – 1.16, Medium term – 1.2, Short term – 1.2

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.32, Medium term – 1.25, Short term – 1.24

Economic release today –

• Consumer credit came at £1.41 billion for September.
• Mortgage approvals for September came at 62,923
• Money supply rose by 6.2 percent y/y.

Commentary –

• The pound is focused on the outlook of Mark Carney, who is yet to announce, whether he will remain full-term or not. The pound has reached our target 1.2 area. We expect the pound to reach parity.

USD/JPY –                      

Trading at 105

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Range/ Sell, Short term – Sell

Support –

• Long term – 91, Medium term – 98, Short term – 98

Resistance –

• Long term – 111, Medium term – 107, Short term – 107

Economic release today –

• Housing starts rose by 10 percent y/y in September.
• Construction orders rose by 16.3 percent y/y.

Commentary –

• The yen is the worst performer of the day. Active call – Buy Yen @119.5 with stop loss around 123.8 and target at 114 and 110, 108.9 and 98.5. All targets reached, new target 90 added. Yen may retrace to 111 per dollar if BOJ intervenes.

USD/CHF –        

Trading at 0.989

Trend meter –

• Long term – Buy, Medium term – Range, Short term – Range/Sell

Support –

• Long term – 0.9, Medium term – 0.927, Short term – 0.95

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.037, Medium term – 1.01, Short term – 0.995

Economic release today –

• NIL

Commentary –

• Franc is relatively strong after finding support at parity. We expect Franc to strengthen against Dollar to as high as 0.86 area in the medium term. However, this call is under threat currently. We could soon revise the call.