Currency snapshot (major pairs)

Dollar index trading at 100.59 (+0.14%)

Strength meter (today so far) – Euro +0.12%, Franc -0.09%, Yen -0.16%, GBP -0.33%

Strength meter (since last week) – Euro +0.12%, Franc -0.09%, Yen -0.16%, GBP -0.33%

EUR/USD –

Trading at 1.065

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Sell, Short term – Sell

Support          

• Long term – 1.032, Medium term – 1.05, Short term – 1.06

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.09, Medium term – 1.085, Short term – 1.085

Economic release today –

• Markit manufacturing PMI for March came at 56.2
• Unemployment rate for February came at 9.5 percent.
• Producer price inflation is up 4.5 percent y/y.

Commentary –

• The euro is trying to retrace last Friday’s big loss against the dollar.

GBP/USD –

Trading at 1.25

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Sell, Short term – range/sell

Support –

• Long term – 1.16, Medium term – 1.2, Short term – 1.2

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.32, Medium term – 1.27, Short term – 1.27

Economic release today –

• NIL.

Commentary –

• The pound is the worst performer of the day. We expect the pound to reach parity in the longer run.

USD/JPY –           

Trading at 111.4

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Range/ Buy, Short term – Range/Buy

Support –

• Long term – 107, Medium term – 109, Short term – 109

Resistance –

• Long term – 121, Medium term – 119, Short term – 115

Economic release today –

• Nikkei manufacturing PMI edges down to 52.4 in March.

Commentary –

• The yen is likely to test the 110 resistance again.

USD/CHF –        

Trading at 1.003

Trend meter –

• Long term – Buy, Medium term – Range/Buy, Short term – Range

Support –

• Long term – 0.95, Medium term – 0.95, Short term – 0.98

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.08, Medium term – 1.037, Short term – 1.037

Economic release today –

• Real retail sales are up 0.6 percent y/y in February.
• SVME PMI came at 58.6 in March.

Commentary –

• Franc is down in line with the euro.  Active call - Franc might decline to 1.08 per dollar. Target extended to 1.14