UK will be labor market data (0830 GMT) covering the 3 months to February. At first blush, the report last month was softer-than-expected with the unemployment rate holding at 5.7% and headline average earnings growth ea…
UK will be labor market data (0830 GMT) covering the 3 months to February. At first blush, the report last month was softer-than-expected with the unemployment rate holding at 5.7% and headline average earnings growth easing from 2.1% to 1.8%.
However, the former came very close to registering the anticipated 0.1pp decline, and the latter at least in part reflected weaker-than-expected bonuses, possibly reflecting changes in the timing of payments relative to last year.
Nevertheless, with growth in employment remaining strong and the timelier claimant count data pointing to continued falls in unemployment, the tightening in the labour market still appears intact.
According to Lloyds Bank, the headline unemployment rate to move down to 5.6%. Challenging base effects imply annual pay growth is likely to edge down a little to 1.7%, though revisions of bonus seasonal adjustment may further complicate the picture.
Internationally, inflation trends will be in focus. Although Eurozone CPI (0900 GMT) is expected to be unrevised in the final estimate for March at -0.1% y/y on the headline rate and 0.6% y/y on the core, the US CPI data (1230 GMT) for March are likely to be of more interest.
An increase in gasoline prices relative to February is expected to help keep the annual CPI rate at 0.0%, although favourable rounding may result in a stronger print. Meanwhile, the core rate is expected to hold at 1.7%, says Lloyds Bank. Some renewed softening in headline rates for both the US and Eurozone remains a possibility in the months to come, however.
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