Daily Economic Outlook: 24th August, 2015

Last week's release of the July FOMC meeting minutes suggested that the burden remains on developments in US data to convince Fed policy makers of the merits of a policy tightening. With little in the way of key economic data today, the Jackson Hole conference, later this week (Wed - Fri), will therefore be keenly anticipated as it provides a platform for Fed officials to opine on the subject.

The expected absence of FOMC Chair Yellen, however, leaves little room for the Fed to explicitly communicate any intention to begin normalising policy in advance of its September meeting. And, with all the downside risks identified in the minutes of the FOMC's July meeting seemingly becoming more pressing, a September first hike from the Fed now seems still more finely balanced, states Lloyds Bank.

Ahead of the symposium, today's speech by Atlanta Fed president Lockhart will be closely watched. In recent comments, he has acknowledged that conditions in the US have almost returned to normal and that a decision to raise interest rates should come soon. His speech will be closely watched to see how, and if, this view has changed in light of recent events in China and commodity markets, adds Lloyds Bank.