Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
The data focus for the morning is likely to centre on European inflation trends, with Spanish and German data providing partial colour in advance of the aggregate Eurozone release on Friday. While Spanish inflation is expected to nudge out of deflationary territory, rising to a +0.1% annual rate in July, German data - preceded as usual by Lander-level reports - is expected to hold at +0.1%, against a backdrop of softer oil prices relative to their levels in June, Lloyds Bank.
On the European activity front, Spanish GDP data for Q2 will be of interest, and are expected to show the economy's brisk pace of recovery continuing in the aftermath of the crisis. Eurozone confidence indicators for July, although more timely, are expected to be little changed from current levels, adds Lloyds Bank.
In the aftermath of last night's FOMC decision, the first estimate of US GDP data for Q2 will provide the focus for the afternoon, having already been seen by Fed policymakers. While growth is widely anticipated to rebound after the weak weather-afflicted Q1 reading, our expectation of a 3.0% annualised pace is a little ahead of the consensus. Underpinning this is an above-consensus gain in consumer expenditure; however, the softness seen in retail sales data for June could limit the improvement by more than is built into our estimate. Meanwhile, revisions to seasonal adjustments could also re-profile growth in this and previous years, pushing up Q1 relative to other quarters in the year, according to Lloyds Bank.
