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This morning will see the release of July manufacturing PMI data across much of Europe. The 'flash' reading for the euro area as a whole fell modestly from its June level, reflecting slippages in both France and Germany. The updated estimate is expected to be unchanged. Even with the recent decline, the euro area indicator remains close to its recent high, possibly reflecting the support to activity from the weakening euro. In contrast, the UK index slipped to a 26-month low in June possibly reflecting the impact of sterling's appreciation against the euro. Other business surveys show a further modest weakening in July and a fall is expected to 51.3 from 51.4 in June, according to Lloyds Bank.
In contrast, the US ISM manufacturing index rose in both May and June. That still leaves its level well below its highs of late last year, but there is tentative evidence that manufacturing has now absorbed much of the negative impact of the US dollar's surge over the past twelve months.
"Consequently, while manufacturing will likely continue to underperform sectors that are more focused on domestic activity, another small rise in July is expected. US construction activity is showing more concerted signs of life, boosted by a strengthening housing market. Finally, the June household spending is unlikely to produce any major surprises as the key numbers were included in last week's GDP report", says Lloyds Bank.
