In 2015, Denmark posted disappointing exports data. Total exports declined nearly 1% last year, as compared with Danske Bank’s forecast of 3.6% y/y. Most disappointing was service exports that declined 5%. In 2015, global trade weakened significantly, partially because of marked slowdown in China’s economy, while Brazil and Russia were in recession. Apart from service exports, goods exports also disappointed, declining for the rest of 2015 after growing strongly in Q1 2015. This was unexpected as key export markets of Denmark grew positively.
However, both services and goods exports are expected to grow in spite of disappointing performance in 2015, according to Danske Bank. But it has become less positive to project exports growth as Europe’s economic growth is unlikely to rebound further and continue at more or less the current pace, added Danske Bank. Investment outlook of Europe has worsened, partially due to the financial volatility in the beginning of 2016.
However, economy of Europe is growing and hence there is a reason for growth in exports to rebound again, according to Danske Bank. Therefore, the Danish economy is expected to keep expanding. European growth is likely to expand in 2017 because of an accommodative monetary policy, better investment prospects and credit growth, added Danske Bank. Therefore, Denmark’s export growth is expected to be slightly higher in 2017.
