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Gold prices climbed on Monday as investors weighed weaker U.S. economic data against geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, while awaiting the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes for fresh signals on interest rates.
Spot gold (XAU/USD) rose 0.7% to $4,408.12 an ounce, while gold futures gained 0.6% to $4,464.30. Silver advanced 1.8% to $65.84 an ounce, and platinum increased 1.8% to $1,749.15. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.1% to around 99.54.
Gold entered the week after gaining nearly 1% in the previous week. Recent U.S. economic indicators strengthened expectations that the Fed may avoid further monetary tightening. Consumer sentiment declined for the first time in three months, while retail sales recorded their steepest monthly fall in more than a year.
The weaker data eased concerns about an imminent Fed rate hike, benefiting non-yielding assets such as gold. ANZ analysts also noted that bullion has become increasingly sensitive to movements in U.S. Treasury yields.
ANZ expects gold to face near-term pressure from persistent inflation before potentially benefiting from an economic slowdown and eventual monetary easing. The bank forecasts gold prices could reach $5,200 an ounce by the end of 2026, supported partly by continued central-bank diversification.
Geopolitical risks are also supporting safe-haven demand. Attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz and additional U.S. pressure on Iran have heightened concerns about global energy supplies. Although Iran and Oman appear to be moving toward an agreement over management of the strategic waterway, uncertainty remains elevated.
Higher oil prices could reignite inflation and complicate the Fed’s ability to lower interest rates. Investors will therefore closely watch the Fed’s July meeting minutes, scheduled for Wednesday.
Central-bank buying has provided another source of support for gold. ANZ said central banks purchased 244 tonnes during the first quarter of 2026, the strongest quarterly level since late 2024. China also increased its gold reserves by 8 tonnes in April, its largest monthly addition since December 2024.
