Menu

Search

  |   Commentary

Menu

  |   Commentary

Search

Divided FOMC committee might not hike

FOMC committee is essentially divided between members who see the health of the domestic economy and continued improvements in labor markets as decisive and warranting a near-term rate hike and those who remain concerned about the prospects for inflation returning to target and the implications of not reaching that target for the ultimate anchoring of inflation expectations, amid risks that economic activity could be derailed by developments abroad. 

These two camps have likely drifted farther apart as recent readings on household consumption show the potential for an accelerating household sector even as inflation continues to run below the FOMC's target and some data releases, such as jobs and trade, have disappointed sharply to the downside.

"Through all of this dissention, the first rate hike is expected in March 2016. The recent data flow on prices, trade, and jobs all tilt in favor of the first rate hike occurring next year rather than in December", says Barclays.  

At the end of the day, the outlook for inflation will stay the FOMC's hand this year and that they will wait for further evidence of tightness in labor markets and improvements in the inflation outlook before raising rates.

  • Market Data
Close

Welcome to EconoTimes

Sign up for daily updates for the most important
stories unfolding in the global economy.