Dollar Dominance Drives Pair to 1.5-Month Low Amid Fed's Data-Dependent Stance

EUR/USD  hits one and half half-month low on board-based US dollar buying. It hit a low of 1.14008 and is currently trading around 1.14479. Overall trend remains bearish as long as resistance 1.1600 holds.

Unusual disagreement from Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller—each voted for a 0. 25% reduction—the first dual dissent for a cut since 1993—revealed on July 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve maintained its federal funds rate at 4. 25%–4. 50% for a fifth straight meeting. Although the Fed reported mild economic growth and a strong labor market, it cautioned that inflation remains "somewhat high" and pointed out uncertainties regarding trade policy and taxes. Foregoing precise forward guidance for September, it underlined that incoming data—especially on inflation and employment—will drive upcoming actions, a contrast to President Trump's calls for immediate cuts. Chair Powell highlighted the necessity to evaluate tariff effects; the balance sheet runoff will go on; and Governor Adriana Kugler was absent from the vote, therefore highlighting a careful, data-dependent approach as the Fed negotiates contradictory economic signals.

The pair is holding below the 55 EMA, 200 EMA, and 365 EMA in the 1-hour chart. Near-term resistance is seen at 1.14625; a break above this may push the pair to targets of  1.1510/1.15480/ 1.1600. On the downside, support is seen at 1.1400; any violation below will drag the pair to 1.1360/1.1300/1.12300.

Market Indicators and Trading Strategy

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)-  Bearish

Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) - Neutral

 It is good to sell on rallies around 1.1478-80 with a stop-loss at 1.1530 for a target price of 1.1300.