Czech National Bank governor Jiri Rusnok in an unexpected turn of events announced yesterday that the European Central Bank's (ECB) eventual extension of bond-buying programme may not affect Czech National Bank's (CNB) decision regarding the timing of exit from EUR/CZK floor, if inflation is headed back to or slightly above target.
The Czech National Bank has said an exit from its intervention regime which is in place since 2013 to keep the crown on the weak side of 27 to the euro - may come in mid-2017. The CNB has paid special attention to ECB’s policy and Rusnok’s comments show the central bank now places more importance on its inflation outlook.
"If inflation will be staunchly headed to the target, or above it, then this (possible ECB action) does not have to worry us too much," Rusnok told a business seminar when asked on the possibility.
Czech economy has started to see firm growth and wages are rising. Inflation ticked up to 0.8 percent in October but still remains below the bank's 2 percent target as a weak euro zone is still weighing.
"According our estimates the Czech headline inflation could be at the 2.0% target in the second or third quarter of the next year. In this respect, Rusnok’s words (about less relevance of ECB’s policy) only confirm our view that the CNB will scrap the EUR/CZK floor (set at the 27.00 level) sometimes in the third quarter of 2017." said Commerzbank in a report.


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