EM Asian currencies likely to benefit from global reflation policies and yield-chasing portfolio inflows, says Scotiabank

The EM Asian currencies are expected to benefit from global reflation policies and yield-chasing portfolio inflows, while keeping a close watch on hovering uncertainties surrounding US-China trade talks, upcoming general elections (India, Indonesia, Philippines and European Parliament), geopolitical situation on the Korean Peninsula and cross-strait relations, according to the latest research report from Scotiabank.

If UK cross-party talks results in a soft Brexit, it will prop up the GBP and boost risk appetite across the world.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) data released Monday showed that US manufacturing activity rebounded to 55.3 in March from 54.2 in February, a bit more than expected 54.5. However, the strength and sustainability of the recovery is still in doubt as the gauge has been rising and falling alternately since late 2017. Further the IHS Markit US manufacturing PMI fell further to 52.4 in March from 53.0 a month ago.

In addition, other weak macro data underscored slowing US economy, providing scope for the Fed to maintain its dovish stance. US industrial production increased 0.1 percent m/m in February compared to a 0.4 percent rise predicted in a Bloomberg survey, while US retail sales dropped 0.2 percent m/m in February versus market estimate of a 0.2 percent growth.

The Conference Board on Tuesday also said its index of US consumer confidence declined to 124.1 in March from 131.4 in February, casting a shadow on US growth outlook.

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said on Tuesday that global growth has lost momentum amid rising trade tensions and tighter financial conditions, but pauses in rate hikes will help boost activity in the second half of 2019, according to Reuters.

In the meantime, US core PCE inflation eased to 1.8 percent y/y in January from the upwardly revised 2.0 percent y/y recorded in December, marking the slowest pace of increase since February 2018. It keeps imposing downward pressure on the 10Y UST yield. The 3M-10Y UST yield curve is likely to invert again, which could prompt the Fed to step up efforts to avoid an inversion, the report added.