ETHUSD: Bearish Grip Tightens – Hunt Dips at $3500, Target $5000 Rebound

As of early November 2025, the Ethereum Holder Accumulation Ratio (HAR) has dropped to 29.79%, indicating a negative holder mood, down 7.5% from late October. As measured by Glassnode, this statistic shows that fewer addresses are hoarding ETH than are selling; readings below 30% usually indicate decreased confidence. While retail involvement lags, long-term holders are cutting positions amid whale gathering, therefore generating selling pressure that negates fresh inflows. This difference highlights a cautious market wherein institutional and retail actions sharply oppose aggressive whale buying.

Adding to the strain, Ethereum ETFs have experienced significant withdrawals totaling $244 million for the week ending October 31, 2025; $98.2 million departed on the led by BlackRock's $38.6 million and Fidelity's $27.1 million, final day alone. This comes after September's $788 million four-day outflows, including a $76 million single-day apex. Nonetheless, whales increased holdings to 100.92 million ETH in October, adding 1.64 million ETH ($6.4 billion), while BitMine's treasury policy collected 662,169 ETH in With 30 days approachin,g almost 3% of total supply, exchange outflows decreased 43% to 1.10 million ETH. Higher lows on the Smart Money Index since October 22 suggest growing short-term selling interest's budding rebound confidence.

Oscillators and moving averages to forecast the trend of ETHUSD

CMP- $3704

EMA (4-hour chart)

55-EMA- $3909

200-EMA- $4038

365-EMA- $4073. The pair trades below the short and long-term moving averages.

Major Support - $3675. Any breach below $3675 will drag the pair down to $3500/$3000.

Major Resistance - $4000.  Any break above $4000 confirms minor bullishness, a jump to $4300/ $4500/$4770/ $5000/$5263.

Indicators (4-hour chart)

CCI(50)- Bearish

ADX-  Bearish

5. Investment Strategy for ETHUSD

It is good to buy on dips around $3500 with a stop loss around $3000 for target profits of $5000/$5260.