EU Commission lowers estimate of EU soft wheat and rapeseed crops in 2015/16

In its June estimate of EU soft wheat production in 2015/16, the European Commission has undertaken a further downward revision and now expects only just shy of 140 million tons. This is 1.5 million tons down on the May forecast, and well below the 148.8 million tons achieved in the previous year. The news from the US, Canada and the EU, and the uncertain outlook for Australia, caused the wheat price in Paris yesterday to rise briefly above the €200 per ton mark for the first time since the end of 2014. 

The European Commission also reduced its estimate for the EU rapeseed crop: rather than the 22.4 million tons predicted for 2015/16 in May, it now anticipates only 21.7 million tons, which is 10.6% down on the year-on-year figure, says Commerzbank. Lower crop yields are the main reason for the downward revisions. By contrast, the European Commission marginally increased its predicted figure for the corn crop, just as the International Grains Council (IGC) had already done last week. At 68.4 million tons, however, the Commission's estimate is somewhat higher than the 67.6 million tons forecast by the IGC. 

The US Department of Agriculture's estimate of 68.1 million tons is somewhere in between. Based on its May prediction that the EU-wide sugar beet acreage will fall 14% short of the previous year in 2015/16, coupled with the assumption that average yields will be down by a good 3%, the European Commission's first forecast for 2015/16 envisages sugar production totalling 15.65 million tons following a record 19.4 million tons in 2014/15, notes Commerzbank.