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EURGBP trades flat as trade war escalates. Intraday bias remains bullish as long as support 0.8580 holds. It hits an intraday high of 0.86180 and is currently trading around 0.86143.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey offered insights into the Bank's plans in changing economic surroundings at his presentation before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee. He made it clear that market stability depended on COVID-era Quantitative Easing (QE) and that its present unwind, in time with growing interest rates, was an expected and well-known progression. Bailey attributed the market turmoil following the September 2022 "mini-Budget" to the lack of Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) participation and the Bank's limited previous awareness of the fiscal actions. Regarding interest rates, Bailey maintained a "still downward" attitude dependent on economic data, especially inflation and labor market developments. He also acknowledged the current "trade-off" of high inflation and sluggish growth, mostly attributable to outside shocks, and conceded that past stagflation warnings could have underestimated the difficulties. He strongly differentiated recent gilt purchases for financial stability from QE, claiming these were transient, targeted interventions separate from monetary policy. Bailey's evidence highlighted how the Bank is dedicated to preserving both monetary and financial stability while negotiating continuing economic complexity.
Technical Analysis
The pair is currently trading above the 55 and 200-EMA and 365-EMA on the 4-hour chart.
Bearish Trend Confirmation: Any break below 0.8580 confirms an intraday bearish trend. A drop to 0.8520/0.8480/0.84425/0.8400/0.8378/0.8340/0.8300 is likely.
Near-Term Resistance: The near-term resistance is around 0.8680. Any violation above will take the pair to 0.8765/0.8800.
Indicator Analysis (4-hour chart)
CCI (50): Bullish
Average Directional Movement Index: Neutral
Trading Recommendation
It is good to buy on dips around 0.8580 with SL around 0.8520 for a TP of 0.8700/0.8765.
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