EUR/USD pared some of its gains ahead of the Fed's monetary policy. It hit an intraday low of 1.14831 and is currently trading around 1.15072.
The week ending June 14, 2025, saw a 5,000 decrease in initial jobless claims in the US, which was more than double economists' predictions, while continuing claims also decreased slightly to 1.95 million. Despite the minor dips, the four-week moving average for initial claims reached 245,500, its highest level since August 2023, suggesting a gradual cooling of the labor market and an ongoing trend towards positive employment. According to the data, the labor market is experiencing a slowdown caused by higher interest rates, uncertainty from central banks, and factors such as tariffs and global tensions.
The pair is holding above the short and long-term moving averages in the 4-hour chart. Near-term resistance is seen at 1.1600; a break above this may push the pair to targets of 1.1635/1.1660. Major bullish momentum is likely only if prices are able to break above the 1.160 target and 1.1660. On the downside, support is seen at 1.1480; any violation below will drag the pair to 1.1435/1.135/1.1300/1.1265.
Market Indicators and Trading Strategy
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)- Bullish
Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) - Neutral
It is good to buy on dips around 1.1480 with a stop-loss at 1.1435 for a target price of 1.1660.
