EURUSD trades well below 1.1500 on broad-based US dollar buying. The pair hits an intraday low of 1.14573 and is currently trading around 1.14589.
Though both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are tightening monetary policy, their paths and underlying worries differ. The Fed has increased rates to 3.75% to 4.00% and forecasts another rise in 2026, with rates staying high until 2027, driven by persistent domestic inflation and backed by a stronger economy. Dealing with energy shocks and supply-chain restrictions pushing up prices, the ECB has increased its deposit rate to 2.50% and projects inflation to stay above target until 2028, with a weaker growth forecast than the United States. This difference—including a sizable policy-rate gap favoring the dollar—points to near-term vulnerability for EUR/USD unless the ECB indicates more forceful increases or the energy crisis passes without significant effects on growth. The Fed's most recent inflation data and the ECB's October meeting are two significant forthcoming indicators.
|
Technicals |
CMP -1.14609 |
Trend |
|
|
4-hour chart |
Value |
|
|
|
55 EMA |
1.15510 |
CMP<value |
Bearish |
|
200- EMA |
1.15687 |
CMP<value |
Bearish |
|
365- EMA |
1.15593 |
CMP<value |
Bearish |
|
800-EMA |
1.15726 |
CMP<value |
Bearish |
Major support- 1.14500/1.1430/1.1400/1.13500/1.13200. Near-term resistance-1.1500/1.15350/1.1565/1.1600.
|
Momentum indicator |
Inference |
Value |
|
CCI(50) |
Bearish |
-109.27 |
|
ADX |
Neutral |
|
It is good to sell on rallies around 1.14800 with SL around 1.15350 for a TP of 1.13200
