EUR/USD showed a minor sell-off on Trump trade uncertainty. It hit an intraday high of 1.17494 and is currently trading around 1.17282. Overall trend remains bearish as long as resistance 1.18295 holds.
June 17–18 FOMC minutes show a Federal Reserve fighting opposing opinions on future rate reductions amid uncertainties coming from increasing tariffs, persistent inflation, and a weakening labor market. Most policymakers expect rate cuts late this year, but there's a great variety of ideas on timing and extent; some would cut as early as July, while others find no case for 2025. Recognizing the conflict between managing inflation and boosting employment, the committee voiced great alarm about the inflationary effect of fresh tariffs and the possibility of a slowing economy; nevertheless, any rate changes would be phased and data-driven, despite outside political constraints.
The pair is holding above the 55 EMA,200 EMA, and 365 EMA in the 1-hour chart. Near-term resistance is seen at 1.1750; a break above this may push the pair to targets of 1.1765/1.1800/1.1835/1.19090/1.1956/1.200. Major bullish momentum is likely only if prices can break above the 1.200 targets 1.2100. On the downside, support is seen at 1.16800; any violation below will drag the pair to 1.1680/1.1660/1.1600.
Market Indicators and Trading Strategy
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)- Bearish
Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) - Bearish
It is good to sell on rallies around 1.17438-40 with a stop-loss at 1.1765 for a target price of 1.1600.
