EUR/USD recovered above 1.16500 after weak US CPI. It hit an intraday high of 1.16681 and is currently trading around 1.16523. Overall trend remains bullish as long as support 1.1590 holds.
The July 2025 US CPI report reveals a nuanced inflation picture: while headline CPI saw a modest 0.2% monthly increase and remained steady at 2.7% year-over-year, core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose a sharper 0.3% month-over-month, hitting a 3.1% annual rate. This core acceleration, driven by factors like shelter costs and tariff impacts, indicates persistent inflationary pressures despite tempering effects from falling energy prices. The data suggests that, although overall price growth shows some moderation, underlying inflation remains a concern, reinforcing market expectations for a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September 2025 as the Fed balances inflation with economic growth and employment.
The pair is holding above the 55 EMA, 200 EMA, and 365 EMA in the 15 min chart. Near-term resistance is seen at 1.170; a break above this may push the pair to targets of 1.1748/1.1778/1.1800. On the downside, support is seen at 1.1590; any violation below will drag the pair to 1.1545/1.1480/1.1435.
Market Indicators and Trading Strategy
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)- Bullish
Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) - Neutral
It is good to buy on dips around 1.1645 with a stop-loss at 1.1600 for a target price of 1.1765.
