EUR/USD Surges to 1.17497 as Dismal US Jobs Data Fuels Fed Rate Cut Bets

EUR/USD  gained sharply after dismal US jobs data. It hit an intraday high of 1.17497 and is currently trading around 1.17307. Overall trend remains bullish as long as support 1.1575 holds. 

The US Non-Farm Payroll report for August 2025, released on September 5, 2025, revealed a stark labor market slowdown, with only 22,000 jobs added—the lowest since the Great Recession, excluding the pandemic—missing the 75,000-job forecast, while the unemployment rate hit 4.3%, the highest since 2021. Revisions showed a net loss of 13,000 jobs from prior months, with job gains concentrated in leisure and hospitality (50,000) and losses in manufacturing, trade, and utilities, alongside an 86,000-job corporate layoff surge. The three-month job growth average of 35,000, down from 123,000 in 2024, falls below the 50,000–75,000 needed for population growth, reflecting employer caution amid tariff, trade, and immigration uncertainties. Moderated wage growth and the report’s weakness cement expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, with markets pricing in over 50 basis points of easing by year-end, amid heightened scrutiny of labor data following President Trump’s dismissal of a top Labor Department official.

The pair is holding above the 55 EMA, 200 EMA, and 365 EMA in the 1-hour chart. Near-term resistance is seen at 1.1765; a break above this may push the pair to targets of 1.1800/1.1835/1.1900. On the downside, support is seen at 1.1700; any violation below will drag the pair to 1.1660/1.15750/1.1545/1.1480/1.1435.

Market Indicators and Trading Strategy

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)-  Bullish

Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) - Bullish

 It is good to buy on dips around 1.1700 with a stop-loss at 1.1660 for a target price of 1.1835.