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Since May, EUR/USD has remained captive within a 1.08 to 1.1470 range, well above the year's low near EUR/. Despite the growing proximity of a Fed rate hike and in spite of the intensification of fears over a Grexit earlier this summer, EUR/USD has remained doggedly resilient. At the start of May, the consensus of the Bloomberg FX survey pointed to a move to EUR/USD 1.04 by Q3 2015 that has now shifted higher to EUR/USD 1.07 by the end of the current quarter.
One factor that wrong footed the consensus earlier this year was the view held by many that the US economy would be growing strongly enough to allow the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in June. Another factor was the expectation that political uncertainty in Greece would pressure the EUR lower. While there is an intuitive appeal to this idea, it was overruled by other factors.
"We continue to expect a moderately paced decline in the value of EUR/USD in the coming months. However, for the broad -ased value of the EUR to fall sharply, general levels of risk appetite will likely have to improve", says Rabobank.
