European air traffic agency EUROCONTROL cut its 2026 growth outlook for flights across the 44-state European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC) area, citing reduced demand for travel to and from the Middle East, rerouting and higher jet fuel costs.
In its Oct. 20 forecast, EUROCONTROL projects 11.2 million flights in 2026, a 1.7% increase from 2025. The agency gives that estimate a range of plus or minus 0.6 percentage points, or 1.1% to 2.3%. Its spring forecast had projected 2.7% growth, so the revised outlook still shows annual expansion but at a slower pace.
The forecast covers the ECAC area, which consists of 44 member states. EUROCONTROL estimates that Middle East tensions will leave traffic around 110,000 movements below a scenario without the tensions. That figure compares the agency’s estimate with a hypothetical alternative; it is not a forecast of 110,000 fewer flights than in 2025.
The agency links the lower outlook to reduced demand for travel to and from the Middle East, rerouted flights and higher jet fuel costs associated with the tensions. Its demand estimate refers to travel connected with the region.
For 2027, EUROCONTROL’s base case assumes more stable conditions in the Middle East by late March. Under that scenario, it projects about 11.6 million ECAC flights, with growth of 3.2%, plus or minus 2 percentage points. EUROCONTROL’s low and high scenarios project 2027 growth of 1.1% and 5.0%, respectively.
