EUR/USD lost its shine and declined more than 100 pips in the past week on board-based US dollar buying. It hits an intraday low of 1.15059 and is currently trading around 1.15258. Intraday trend remains bearish as long as resistance 1.1600 holds.
Dropping to 48.7 in October 2025, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI suggested an eighth straight month of sector decline, powered by a sharp 2.8-point drop in Production to 48.2; continuing weakness in New Orders (49.4) and Employment (46.0); and moderating but high Prices Paid (58.0). Though only two out of six major sectors are growing, the reading supports +1.8% yearly GDP growth among robust consumer demand, even as trade uncertainties, high interest rates, and supply chain problems persist. While a little "chain reaction" increase in New Orders, Production, and Backlogs hints at possible recovery, markets responded with a weaker dollar and EUR/USD gains. Emphasis on Federal policy and investor attitude.
The pair is holding below the 55 EMA, 200 EMA, and 365 EMA in the 4-hour chart. Near-term resistance is seen at 1.15450; a break above this may push the pair to targets of 1.1575/1.1600/1.1670/1.1700/1.1765/1800/1.1835/1.1850/1.1920. On the downside, support is seen at 1.1500; any violation below will drag the pair to 1.1480/1.1435.
Market Indicators and Trading Strategy
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)- Bearish
Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) - Bearish
It is good to sell on rallies around 1.1548-550 with a stop-loss at 1.1600 for a target price of 1.1435.
