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Euro, Sterling Daily Outlook

The ECB staff projections for growth were slightly stronger than expected and while CPI is forecast to rise to 1.5% in 2016 and 1.8% in 2017, it still suggests further QE post Sept-16 cannot be ruled out. 

The ECB also announced the modalities for the asset purchase programme, but overall there was little new that materially impacted EUR. Instead it was the continuation of USD strength that pushed EUR/USD briefly below 1.10 yesterday.
 
Lloyds Bank notes in a report on Friday:

  • The US payrolls report is the only release of note today. The USD has been trading with a firmer tone over the past few sessions, suggesting USD long positions have extended going into today's release.
     
  • Furthermore, looking at the Bloomberg survey, forecasts are skewed slightly towards the upside of the median forecast. This would suggest a softer headline payrolls print will trigger a greater market reaction. 

  • However, while the initial reaction is likely to be on the headline number, the unemployment rate and earnings data will be just as important.
     
  • For EUR/USD, the 1.0985/1.10 area is likely to provide good initial support, for GBP/USD the 1.5170/70 area should provide good initial support.

  • Market Data
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